As usual, my optimism about future events in our country turned to be quite profitable. By the way, I also had a good bet on Ukraine-Poland “win rights to organize EURO 2012” with 2.7 coefficient !
Anyway, Yulia made an fantastic improvement since March and I am glad I have contributed to that as well.
Unfortunetly, Favorit (www.favorit.com.ua) acted really dishonest on political bets. They have claimed that maximum bet was 1000 UAH in bets line. However, when I tried to bet a thousand, the classier said that system allowed the limit of 300 and she would not accept more.
The way out in such situations is to bet at different locations (e.g 300 in 4 locations of Favorit will make you able to bet 1200). But I did not have time to walk around Kyiv and visit all their offices, so I made two 300 UAH bets in 2 different locations. Therefore, my initial investment was only 600 UAH instead of planned 1000.
Download bets_confirmation.doc
Yulia clearly beats 25% barrier, so it’s time to calculate profit.
You might assume that, as the coefficient was 1.85, it means I will receive 600 * 1.85 = 1100 and 510 net profit. It is a pleasant assumption, but it actually is not true. Remember time value of money !
I made a bet on 27th of September. “CVK” is obliged to announce results on 15th day after elections. They could be followed by the court cases, which I as far as I remember must be cleared in about 10 days. Basically, Favorit will start repayments somewhere in the end of October. So let’s assume that period of investment is 1 month.
Inflation in Ukraine was 6.2% for Jan – Aug 2007, therefore we calculate that monthly inflation is 6.2/8 months = 0.78%. That means my 1100 UAH in terms of September money will be 1110 / (1 + 0.0078) = 1101 UAH.
So, as you understand now my win in real money is 501 UAH.
Conclusions for this whole story:
- be optimistic about the future
- wish all the best to people you like
- take a risk and you will be rewarded
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